Authors: Mohammad Nazmul Huda
Abstract: Agricultural landscapes provide economic outputs as well as environmental services that are frequently omitted from conventional economic accounting. Sugarcane is a high-biomass C4 crop capable of substantial atmospheric CO₂ fixation and evapotranspiration. This study develops an indicative economic valuation of these services for six sugar-mill-associated sugarcane systems in Bangladesh and compares the potential value of maintaining existing vegetation with two hypothetical alternatives: (i) recreating an equivalent carbon-fixation service through tree plantation and (ii) increased dependence on imported mechanical cooling and related appliances under hypothetical additional thermal-stress scenarios. The underlying assessment estimates approximately 24,412 ha of reconstructed sugarcane-associated land and approximately 1.195 million tonnes of cane-equivalent production per crop cycle. Applying a biomass-based conversion factor of 0.802 tonnes CO₂ per tonne of fresh cane gives an estimated 958,347 tonnes of gross CO₂ fixation per crop cycle. Using illustrative carbon valuations of US$20, US$60, US$88 and US$180 per tonne CO₂, the gross CO₂-fixation service is valued at approximately US$19.2–172.5 million, equivalent to approximately BDT 232–2,087 crore at BDT 121/US$. A separate scenario analysis indicates that a hypothetical 10%, 25% and 50% increase in selected cooling and refrigeration imports would correspond to approximately BDT 201 crore, 503 crore and 1,007 crore, respectively. The analysis does not claim direct causation between vegetation loss and appliance imports; rather, it illustrates the economic magnitude of alternative adaptation pathways.
